There is, in ECON 101, a cycle called the Kondratieff cycle. According to this theory, the economy follows an up cycle , where consumers spend more and more, business earns more and more, until we reach the top of the cycle and we are in a down cycle, with recession, unemployment, and deficits, until consumers prime the pump again.
In case of as severe a recession as the September 2008 Bush recession, the down cycle is much more prolonged and the upcycle takes place, but later. There is absolutely no doubt that by 2012, 2013 at the latest, the economy is going to be booming, and then humming along in 2013-2014. The deficit will be wiped out , simply because the Federal Govt. will earn much bigger revenues. It will be much easier to reimburse the debt and, with bipartisan effort, to achieve a balanced budget as we did under President Clinton.
Instead of waiting for the economy to recover normally, the Republicans are sounding the alrma: :The deficit is coming, the deficit is coming!" They see in this temporary phase of the cycle a great opportunity to achieve their old dream: to wipe out the New Deal and The Great Society in one fell swoop. They claim it is a must to cut deeply into all entitlements, squeeze the middle class (without touching tax cuts to the rich as if we needed another trickle down theory).
If they are in such a hurry that we have to cut the deficit without waiting, I have a few suggestions:
1. Let the Bush tax cuts expire as they were supposed to.
2. Stop both wars , Iraq and Afghanistan, right now.
3. Use the proceeds of the stimulus plan to invest in infrastructure repair, high speed train networks, and inner city light rail.
4. Launch a real race to Mars.
But do not use the crisis to take from the poor and add to the rich. The societal divide is unsustainable in the long run and makes for terrible societies.
Monday, November 29, 2010
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