Monday, October 19, 2009

Exit strategy?


According to General Mc Chrystal, we are losing the war in Afghanistan. By all measures, the Talibans are gaining ground, and, worse, they are also winning the famous hearts and minds. Why is it that in spite of so much investment in blood and treasure , NATO forces are losing? The average Afghan is aware that western public opinions are tired of the war. They see that when one soldier dies, the French president, the Canadian Premier or the British PM give them national funerals. Opposition parties are against the war , and, in the US, President Obama's very supporters are very vocal against the pursuit of our engagement. Apart from a few countries, NATO members only pay lip service to their commitment. Their public opinion should be reminded that they are in Afghanistan under artcle 5 of the NATO charter which mandates help to any member who is attacked. Certain memembers, like Germany, have loaded their presence with so much "caveats", that it is said that the Bundeswehr is drinking beer in the North while the Caanadians are being killed in the South. And, GIs are wont to quip that ISAF stands for:" ISaw Americans Fight".
Barack Obama is deliberating, without much input from NATO, whether to stay or turn tail. Most Afghans, seeing the long discussions and the reluctant allies, have concluded that it was better to be friends with the next masters, the Talibans, than with westerners who have a long history of turning tails. Afghani farmers make more money selling opium to the bad guys than to see their fields eradicated by NATO forces.
Mr. Obama will probably emerge from his reflexions with an order to send 40,000 more troops. How many will be from Europe? It will be a watershed for the alliance. If the US leave the battlefield to the Talibans , and Al Qaeda, it will be the death knell for NATO. US voters will quickly decide they are tired of ensuring Europe's safety . I am not sure European taxpayers are ready to increase their defense budget (the Pentagon budget is equal to the budget of all other member states combined)
The future of NATO and the defense future of Europe is at play.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Istanbul





After Pittsburgh, where our Leaders gave directions to come out of the economic crisis, their finance ministers and central bankers met in Turkey to see about their implementation. I tagged along. The good news is: we are coming out of the 1 year old crisis caused by greed and the previous Administration's complicity. The bad news is that, although we are in full recovery mode, it takes a while to come out of a deep well. TARP is working and so is Obama's stimulus package. Employment will follow suit as soon as consumers will come back from where they are hiding. No consumption = no production = no jobs.
So far, the biggest victim of the banking cum subprime crisis caused by our Wall Street geniuses and the accomodating SEC, is the US dollar.
As to Turkey, it was my 4th visit, and, although I did work at the Finance Conference, I had time to explore its maze of streets and warrens of hammams, Turkish baths, coffee houses, bazaars, souks, spice markets, harems, mosques etc.. I took a trip down the Bosphorus and up the Golden Horn. I re-visited the Blue Mosque, Hagia Sophia and Topkapi.
Upon my return, I was very happy to hear of president Obama's elevation to Nobel Peace Prize. What an honor for the United States. And shame on the fanatics who chose to criticize him for it, siding with no less than the Talibans, hamas and Ahmadinejad!
When I shook his hand in Pittsburgh, little did I know I was sahking the hand of a Nobel Peace Prize. Allah is Great!