Thursday, August 9, 2012

A socialist path

France has elected a new president at the end of May. A socialist. In June, the voters overwhelmingly elected a socialist Parliament to complement the already socialist Senate. A trifecta.
Socialists in France, are not the garden variety reconstructed social democrats one can find in Germany, Britain or Scandinavia. They are through and through Marxists, with a few unrepented Trotskyites. This seems to suit the French electorate whivh, in its vast majority , is anti Capitalist. (France also has an anti-capitalist party, and a Left party made up of former communists, greens, and anarchists).

Francois Hollande, the new president, has inherited the economic crisis Europe is going through, but has made unconsiderate promises of a radiant future that he will not be able to deliver. Out of his "60 propositions", two thirds are no longer the prerogative of the French government, but of the EU in Brussels. Faced with an immediate crisis in the auto sector, his first reaction is to ban the firing of workers, fine entrepreneurs who outsource jobs in Eastern Europe or North Africa. Already, France slipped from the 26th to the 29th rank of "Doing Business".
Hollande also announced at the NATO summit that he was immediately withdrawing French troops from Afghanistan, whereas, Sarkozy, his predecessor had already negotiated an early withdrawal date in 2014.

Europe is in dire financial straits. The financial crisis that started in Wall Street in 2008 only precipitated a latent sovereign budget crisis . Europe has a common currency, the Euro, but 27 treasuries, 27 parliaments and 27 governments. many countries, unable to pay their social bills with their low productivity, resorted to borrowings instead. The euro guaranteed low rates. Now the bills are coming and many countries cannot pay.
It will be extremely difficult for a people like the French, who do not believe in capitalism, hate  finances, work, and love their nanny state to wean themselves of the public trough. Hollande, instead of preparing his citizens for the truth, promised even more. The fall will be hot.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

We are just coming of the Iowa primaries and wait for New Hampshire. The Republican field is thinning but the voters seem to be in favor of "none of the above" . My bet is that, the Republican party always chooses the candidate whose turn it is to be the nominee. In this case, Willard Mitt Romney.
In France, the presidential election is much closer: May 2012.
President Sarkozy is less than sure of having a second term. Just like in the US where the minority accuses Obama of being responsible for the parlous state of the economy, although the Wall Street Crash, both wars and even 9/1/1 happened under GW Bush's watch, the minority in France blames Sarkozy for the high unemployment and the debt.  Both being the direct result of the Wall Street crash.
Worse, a lot of the social laws that have aggravated the financial situation of France have been passed by the very Socialists who want to get rid of Sarkozy. The Socialist party has had its primary. Francois Hollande, a bland moderate has been chosen. He already has several nicknames including "pedalo captain" and "flanby" [the name of a popular vanilla jello for kids]. The Green party would be an uncomfortable partner, requiring the closing of all nuclear power plants ( 80% of French energy source). Unfortunately, there is a worse solution: marine Le Pen. An extreme right version of the tea Party whose father nearly missed the presidency in 2007. Bad economic situations cause populist politicians to be believed by a desperate populace. Marine Le Pen in France, Sarah Palin and Co. in the US.