L'économie américaine

Au vu des grands titres, on aurait presque l'impression que ça va trés mal aux USA, qui seraient tombés aussi bas que la Grèce.En fait si on y regarde de plus près, rien n'est plus faux. Ce qui fait les grands titres, c'est le défaut de payment. A l'encontre des pays Européens, les USA se sont imposé un plafond à leur dette et il faut un acte du Congrès pour le relever. Ce plafond a été relevé 66 fois depuis 1917, 10 fois sous Georges W. Bush. Mais cette fois-ci, alors que la dette US n'est qu'à 65% de son PIB (Grèce 120 %, France 100%), soit 14 mille milliards$ sur 800 mille milliards d'actifs),ce plafond artificiel a été atteint. Et, au lieu de le relever comme d'habitude, le parti Républicain, au pouvoir à la chambre des députés mais pas au Sénat, exige la suppression de tous les acquis sociaux depuis Roosevelt, sans augmenter les impôts. Comme la date fatidique se rapproche, les agences de notations et les milieux financiers internationaux s'inquiètent du défaut de payment du pays de réfèrence. Une minorité chez les Républicains, le Tea Party, composé d'ignares, de racistes et de réactionnaires revanchards, profitent de la grande faiblesse du premier président noir pour arriver à leurs fins. Mettant ainsi en danger, non seulement les USA avec une économie en grande convalescence, mais aussi toute l'Europe qui en dépends largement. Les fondamentaux américains sont sains, mais une bataille idéologique sur un détail technique leur fait courir un grand risque.

The debt

The debt has many causes: The Bush tax cuts, the 2 Bush wars, Afghanistan and Irak to name the main ones.The Obama administration added 1 T$ in a stimulus plan and almost as much as a bank and auto companies bailout. Therefore the remedies are rather simple: Repeal the Bush tax cuts, stop all 3 wars ( Is Libya a war?). I would add stop the futile 30 years war on drugs and tax the illicit product, thus emptying jails, cutting down on police spending and giving back felons the means to have a proper job. We could also pare down the defense budget. The cold war is over. The Pentagon has a budget equivalent to that of the total budget of FRance. It is larger that the sum total of all the military budgets in the world.
Besides, the debt has ballooned because of a huge revenue decrease caused by unemployment. When the historically high number of the unemployed returns to work and starts paying taxes again, revenues will flow in federal coffers again.
Also, it is time to make corporations pay taxes (GE pays o$). They have hired armies of lawyers to exploit or create (lobbies) loopholes a mile wide that exempts them of any contribution to the public good. And finally, a huge myth on the debt: China only owns 9% of our debt. The US public owns 47 % through the purchase of T Bills and other financial vehicles.
So conservatives are using this crisis to exaggerate a perfectly explainable situation (the recovery of the worst financial crisis in 80 years!) and excluding the normal tools to remedy it. It is a war on the poor and disenfranchised, a class war that dares not say its name.
And for those who fear the impending doom predicted by the reactionaries: US Treasury Bills still command a 3.7% interest rate , whereas Greece is now at 14%.

There are many social needs in the US. Now is not the time to repeal the 20th Century and go back to the 1890s. I think that when the voters understand Mr Ryan's budget, there will be a Conservative Waterloo in November 2012.

Waste

Rahm Emmanuel is famous for having said that a good crisis should not be wasted. Conservatives have at first criticized him and then decided to embrace his philosophy. Under the cover of Tea Party intransigence, they have seized upon the debt crisis and used it as vehicle to push extreme reactionary policies down our throats.Of course there is a debt. It amounts to 4 % of GDP, which is a far cry from the 111% of GDP of Greece or Portugal. Let us come back to reality: The agregate assets of the US are around 144 Trillion $. The debt is about 14 T $ We are far from bankruptcy. (Standard and Poor tried to scare us in threatening downgrading the US notes from AAA to AAa, but isn't it the same S&P which contributed to the Wall Street meltdown in 2008?)
There are many causes to the debt problem.

Bruxelles

BFM a une rubrique bien nommée: ``C'est la faute à Bruxelles``. Nos dirigeants français, imbus de leur pouvoir qui rétréci en peau de chagrin, s'accrochent à leurs prérogatives nationales et font porter le chapeau de leur bévues à ``Bruxelles``. Si le point de vue de la France l'emporte, à la Commission, au Conseil ou au Parlement Européen, c'est une victoire DE LA FRANCE. Si, au contraire nos vues ne percent pas, c'est la faute à BRUXELLES. Pas étonnant que le citoyen moyen voit L'UE comme une couche supplémentaire, voire inutile du joug administratif. Ou sont les cours d'instruction civique en France sur l'Europe? Qui, en France, peut expliquer correctement le fonctionnement des Institutions? Sait-on que des pans entiers de la politique, l'agriculture, l'industrie, les transports, la pêche, les finances, la monnaie, les douanes, et jusqu'à la défense, sont maintenant décidés à Bruxelles. 75% de nos lois viennent de Bruxelles. Et c'est une bonne chose. Quel poids la France peut elle bien représenter face à la Chine, l'Inde, le Brésil, ou les USA? Croit-on vraiment qu'avec nos 65 millions d'habitants et une langue en voie de disparition, nous sommes entendus dans le concert des nations?
En fait, la tension qui existe entre le niveau national et le niveau fédéral existe aussi aux USA et ce, depuis leur création. En ce moment,le président Obama veut faire intervenir l'État fédéral pour améliorer l'éducation, construire des lignes de TGV ou se doter d'une sécurité sociale. La droite, aux USA, au contraire, insiste sur le droit des États à régler leurs affaires et rejette l'intervention de Washington. Notons qu'en Virginie, par exemple,ce n'est que grâce à l'intervention de l'État fédéral en 1972, que l'on mis fin à ségrégation contre les noirs.
Ca me rappelle étrangement le différend qui oppose Mme Redding,, la Commissaire de l'UE et M. Sarkozy sur les Roms!

Tunisia

Few Americans know anything about Tunisia. A small North African country of 10 million people (half of them under 25!), just started a domino effect that will totally change the face of arab countries. Tunisia was colonized by France in the late 19th century. My grand-father, victim of the long French compulsory dratf at the time, 7 years , found himself in a zouave uniform, in the army that conquered Tunisia. Ever since, Tunisia, even after its independence in the 50's, has been close to France. French remains the official , and even the street language. But the dictatorship of president Ben Ali, following the dictatorship of the founder-president Bourguiba, proved too much for the mass of unemployed educated Tunisian youth.The French, coddled president Ben Ali under the threat of Islamic terrorism: "either me or Al-Qaeda". President Obama, to his credit, had warned the Maghreb dictators that their system had to change. On January 4th, a young Tunisian committed suicide by fire. It triggered riots that toppled the regime. The Pentagon communicated very effectively with the Tunisian armed forces and helped kick Ben Ali out of the country ( He fled with 1 and 1/2 tons of gold and found refuge in Saudi Arabia.
All over the arab world, ruling potentates, in power for ever, must tremble on their throne and know that their days are counted. What Georges W. Bush attempted with his invasion of Iraq , the democratization of muslim countries, might be achieved thanks to the sacrifice of a fruit seller whose death put an end to a tyrant.

Cycle

There is, in ECON 101, a cycle called the Kondratieff cycle. According to this theory, the economy follows an up cycle , where consumers spend more and more, business earns more and more, until we reach the top of the cycle and we are in a down cycle, with recession, unemployment, and deficits, until consumers prime the pump again.
In case of as severe a recession as the September 2008 Bush recession, the down cycle is much more prolonged and the upcycle takes place, but later. There is absolutely no doubt that by 2012, 2013 at the latest, the economy is going to be booming, and then humming along in 2013-2014. The deficit will be wiped out , simply because the Federal Govt. will earn much bigger revenues. It will be much easier to reimburse the debt and, with bipartisan effort, to achieve a balanced budget as we did under President Clinton.
Instead of waiting for the economy to recover normally, the Republicans are sounding the alrma: :The deficit is coming, the deficit is coming!" They see in this temporary phase of the cycle a great opportunity to achieve their old dream: to wipe out the New Deal and The Great Society in one fell swoop. They claim it is a must to cut deeply into all entitlements, squeeze the middle class (without touching tax cuts to the rich as if we needed another trickle down theory).
If they are in such a hurry that we have to cut the deficit without waiting, I have a few suggestions:
1. Let the Bush tax cuts expire as they were supposed to.
2. Stop both wars , Iraq and Afghanistan, right now.
3. Use the proceeds of the stimulus plan to invest in infrastructure repair, high speed train networks, and inner city light rail.
4. Launch a real race to Mars.

But do not use the crisis to take from the poor and add to the rich. The societal divide is unsustainable in the long run and makes for terrible societies.

Disconnect

There is a disconnect between the mood of the voters in the US and reality. It is not surprising that the average taxpayer, frightened by high unemployment,and by the apparent incapacity of either party to master the crisis , is rebelling. The Tea party, egged on by populist puppet masters chez Murdoch, wishes to go back to simpler times, the late 18th century, where the Founding Fathers wrote simple Constitutions and things were easier to understand. The complexity of today's world is too frightening to contemplate. In 1789, it took news 2 weeks to go from Philadelphia to Washington. 80% of the population could not read nor write, and women, slaves, and non property owners could not vote. This notwithstanding, the populace hankers for these good old days, were most of them would have been too hungry and tired to even think about politics.
The complexity of today's world finances totally escapes them. Needless to say the bankers who brought us the Great Recession are busy encouraging this popular turmoil, which brought the US a new Republican majority. This is an insurance contract against any type of inquiry or even less, retribution for their misdeeds. The real winners of these mid-term elections are the members of the finance establishment powerfully aided by their media branch, Fuax News. It is not really a Tea Party but rather a Kool AId party.